Down some...unless everyone wakes up to the fact that the Pres.-elect is unwilling to make the hard choices needed..then it will be down, down, down...with the printing presses running nite and day...churing out weaker and weaker dollars!!!
#1 - Sun Dec 28, 2008 4:20 PM ESTAfter 8 years of a constant free fall I think most of america would be satisfied if he could at least stop the falling. Theres so many areas that have caused the problem and most if not all would have to be changed drastically to repair things. Immigration, outsourcing, health care costs, fuel costs and future fuel options, gross wealth imbalance, overpopulation and infrastructure, global environment... the list goes on and on.
8 years of a constant free fall ????? I'm beginning to think you liberals actually believe some of these insane comments you make..... THe facts are DOW 10,912 (Apr 2001) fall to 8847 (Sept 11 2001) and continue to fall to 7591 (August 2002) then a 5+ year runup peaking at 13,930 (October 2007) ... now down to 9,000 which is higher than post 9/11 and is certainly not a 8 year free fall.... but let's not let facts get in the way of what you truly believe.
Really, Steve from Massachusetts?
Well you seem to be forgetting the effect of the market chill when it looked like Bush would bring the 90s talk show, brain dead, , Neo-conservatives to power. In August of 2000 the Dow was at 11,000+. By August of 2001 Bush and his buddies had it driven down to 8500. It has recently been at 7500 due to the lack of economic savvy, and past misdeeds of the current administration. Lately, as folks have begun to have some the faith that the destruction is over and a new day is coming, it will trend up.
How do you prove this theory? Look at your 401K if you have one left.
when world currencies are not representing actual wealth ie gold/silver,
we live in an artificial economy.wealth is created not earned.
world currencies are created via Fractional Reserve Banking.
They do not represent a countries wealth.only a Fraction!Its Pure Money Created From Nothing.
We Are Seeing The Expansion/Creation of money in reverse.
Everthing must return to its source and that source is Tiny.
if what you say is true than the dow means nothing , only as far
as numbers go , people have lost trillions in the market over
the past few years , retirements destroyed, you have seen all
this happen , you will see more , only the wealthy will gain from
this free fall , as they always have in the past and will again , it
all stems from the u.s.a. `s leadership , thank god john mccain
did not get elected , that would have been the final nail in our
coffin. obama is a last gasp at hope , may he and his family be
safe .
and we will soon see the end of the current administration! Obama will do what he can but congress may not help. congress will try their usual additions and delay the stimulus package that is so badly needed for jobs, jobs. and more jobs.
The market will be up conservatively if the stimulus begins to work as expected.
Down from 11% to 31.5% and additionally, I don't play lottery tickets anymore either.
#2 - Sun Dec 28, 2008 4:35 PM ESTThe Weak dollar helps exports (the industry I work in), but with the looming next round of housing crisis it will be tough for the market to rebound. The only way is if the banks begin lending again and the auto workers union loosen thier grip on the big 3.
#3 - Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:01 PM ESTStock market will go up in 1st quarter 2009 funded by taxpayer money being taken from future citizen private use and spent now by government instead. In 3rd quarter 2009 when investors realize future consumption has been stolen by taxman to fund govenment self gratification stocks will tilt back down. In 4th quarter 2009 stocks go off a cliff as the economy really tanks on the increasing real estate defaults cause caused by the next wave of resets. It took 8 years for government policies to trash the economy to this point and if we are really lucky we might be able to pull it back out of the dumpster in another 8 years...
#4 - Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:03 PM ESTThe Weak dollar helps exports (the industry I work in), but with the looming next round of housing crisis it will be tough for the market to rebound. The only way is if the banks begin lending again and the auto workers union loosen thier grip on the big 3.
#5 - Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:12 PM ESTright. Let's have the government slap some good old fashioned wage limits on those greedy auto workers. That'll show 'em. Hey, maybe a maximum wage to go with the minimum wage. You can't make any more than X, with the value of X depending on which industry you're in.
wage limit on greedy auto workers? Tell all the greedy corps that have their hand out on a monthly basis to bring the cost of living DOWN. People have to make enough money to cover their expenses........I have nothing against someone wanting a DECENT life!
While high paid auto workers may be part of this economic uncertainity, what about the american consumers themselves? We keep buying foreign products year after year, and also export american jobs overseas! It's a vicious cycle and nobody wants to except responsibility for their own lack of frugalty. Gutless politicians and greedy ceo's are only the tip of the ice berg. Our biggest problem being the vanishing middle class and lack of quallity health care for the average citizen..! Let's all learn to tighten our belts and start putting quality back into American products and stop outsourcing jobs to india etc. Jesse Ventura for President!
"We keep buying foreign products year after year..."
You probably even think that your "Hecho en Mexico" Chevrolet is more patriotic than my made in Alabama Toyota.
Don't by the hype, and if American companies manufactured products that American's wanted to buy, they could even afford the labor to make them. Fire the executives, they choose the product mix. The factory floor just folows orders.
High paid auto workers? The ones who actually produce something?
But 25 million dollar a year ball players are perfectly acceptable?
What a country.
Let's get real about what's coming our way. This country hasn't seen 9 % to 10% unemployment for several decades! Only older workers age 50+ have experienced how bad it can get in a deep and long lasting recession/depression.
Most of the public is psychologically unprepared for what's coming. When it hits during the next 6 to 12 months it is going to cause a great deal of anger and social unrest. Crime is going to go up. You will see article after article in the media about whole families losing their homes and ending up on the street. Anxiety levels will rise even higher than today.
Don't discount the ugliness of what's coming for 2009. Given this dismal enviroment, earnings and profits will continue to go down and the market will head to around 6500 by this Summer after a brief Obama rally in the early Spring.
Cash will still be king for some time to come in this investment market. The US won't begin to see an upturn until late 2010 and even then we'll be looking at GDP growth of only 2% or less for the rest of this decade. Stocks will finally be cheap when we enter 2010 with the average surviving large cap showing a trailing PE of around 6 and a dividend of at least 6% or higher.
#6 - Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:49 PM ESTI agree- the energy which is normally in the economy from the consumer in the near term past was an artificial energy fed by "free" credit in the form of either equity loans or "low interest" credit cards. Now that this fuel has dried up, the engine now has to restabilize on a new baseline which will consist primarily of cash, and in an environment where there is no large cash pots out there (for the average individual) this will be a long time coming for a reversal to better fortunes. If you consider that the 700 billion package alone added approx. 2400 per every man, woman and child in the US to the debt, and to the taxpayer base almost 6500 per working taxpayer, there is no short coming out timeline for this one.
I think the stock market is going to show a rally in the first quarter of '09. However, as our economy loses more jobs, as manufacturing and consumer demand drops, the gains will be lost and the market will break to new lows. I feel that investors will be more willing to buy treasuries, than invest in corperations that are going under. The trillions of dollars that the Fed is pumping into the economy is going to feed the stock rally short term. But I feel the rally will be short lived as more corperations fail, and joblessness spikes to historical highs. If all we have to rely on is debt spending to prop up our bankrupt economy, then I see precious metals as the best long term investment. Get your money into real wealth, and have physical posession. My humble opinion...
#7 - Wed Dec 31, 2008 4:17 PM ESTWitness the fall of the US Empire, just like the British, Austrio-Hungarian, Rome, etc... before them.
#8 - Wed Dec 31, 2008 5:01 PM ESTI think it will be far more ranging and cataclysmic than what we have historically seen. Mankind has evolved since then now we are far more predisposed to agressive and violent nature and far less tolerant of others. Too many rats in the cage.
It will be interesting to have front row seats. Now that I have closed my 5 retail stores and am on the verge of loosing my home and everything else, nothing else left to do but pop some popcorn.
Michael,
I am with you. The government and the media have been under-reporting the severity of this downturn. It is horrible.
Salary was cut in 1/2 in September, and was cut completely January 2nd. After being unemployed for 4 months at the beginning of 2008, we have no reserves left.
My wife and I are right with you on the popcorn. I figure we have 3 months before the bank takes our house.
Bankruptcy, here we come...
Up a maximum of 1-3% with a testing of Dow 7,800. Too much uncertainly and that $9 trillon on the sidelines will likely stay there. Industrials will struggle as well as most consumer based stocks. Drive for efficiency will help the top techs and renewables will be a plus even though americans seem to ignore the reality of fossil fuel shortages and pollution as soon as the price of oil comes down. Stop Coal plants now.
Looks bad for Chrysler and I would put no money into GM or Ford.
#9 - Wed Dec 31, 2008 7:03 PM ESTFirst quarter of 09 will be up due to expectations from Obama, Then its down hill as credit card companies default and lending gets even tighter than it is now. Home owners will continue to lose homes as jobs are not available. No matter how a morgage is re financed if the owner hasnt the income to pay it does no good. possible war with Iran will drive oil up worsening the crisis. The only way to save the economy is through job creation, tightening of imports and lower taxes. The bank bailouts were a farce, They are not lending the money because the middle class is out of work and cant afford to pay it back. To ask the banks to loan to unemployeed workers will put the same cycle in motion. The US govt is partially responcible for making banks loan to low income and non crdit worthy borrowers. 2009 will be the year of world violence and we will be lucky to come out of it as a soverien nation. Save all the cash you can get out of the cities and stock up on food and fuel. Glum prediction, I know but Thats how I see it.
#10 - Thu Jan 1, 2009 9:29 AM ESTThe private sector portion of the U.S. economy with die a slow and painful death under the socialism being forced upon it by the spend and tax government welfare state. Remember, government at all levels uses threat of prison time or the barrel of a gun to throw you out of your own home if you do not fork over your money to the taxman. The U.S. stock market is presently having taxpayer funded "bailout rallies". These too shall dry up later this year as taxpayers are sucked dry by government and then the stock market continues its big slide downhill. The British are struggling with the government socialist bailout demon as well: ww
#11 - Thu Jan 1, 2009 12:18 PM ESTSomewhere between now and the end of May the market will stage a modest extended rally which will fake everybody out and then suddenly take another high-velocity power dive of around 30-35%, just like in 1930. Look for the market to finish 2009 around 5800.
#13 - Thu Jan 1, 2009 2:25 PM ESTIt's all about our confidence in the future. If your pessimism can convince the masses you will be correct. On the other hand, a more optimistic outlook can do wonders on the upside. Go buy a car!
Declaring War on our Government
We only came out of the Great Depression because of we had huge numbers of idled factories and tremendous numbers of unemployed people when we were attacked by Japan. Our massive idled capacity was immediately employed in the war effort.
What we're seeing happen now is similar, but there is a much worse undertone going on. ALL of our politicians are counting on OUR collective ignorance and apathy so a relatively select few can benefit on our woes.
The Government's massive money printing program has begun. When that flood of currency begins to hit the market we will see rampant inflation. We will truely see bread at thousands of dollars a loaf. The only thing holding that cash at bay at present are the banks, credit card companies, major financial institutions that have converted into "banking organizations" and, most recently, GMAC Financing.
I have a column you can read http://oldphartbsa.newsvine.com/_news/2008/11/25/2147199-basics-of-banking
on how money is created and how our economy works.
The most irritating aspect of this whole situation is that there was massive citizen response against the bail outs from the beginning and our so called "representatives" voted against the will of their consituants to benefit the already obsenely wealthy (I'm not against wealthy people but, holy horse hockey, we're giving money to people who have already made hundreds of millions and have it still safely secured!!
We, the common, ugly-american, great unwashed mass of "consumers" (we are no longer defined as American Citizens...only as consumers) will be paying the ultimate price for all of the governmental spending.
That price will be paid in reduced wages, reduced purchase power due to extreme inflation, massive chronic unemployment, civil unrest, government crack-downs, and Janet Reno Raids on the opposition (think Waco, Iliano (the Cuban Kid), Ruby Ridge, etc.
All of this was created by our IDIOT politicians who took it on themselves that they knew, and know, the best way to make changes in human and business nature. Our politicians, unfortunately the majority involved were democrats, determined that it was in our collective best interests to have home ownership almost a new Constitutional Right.
They began in the 70's, under Carter, with the Community Reinvestment Act, that had the laudable goal of increasing home ownership for minorities. It was true that there was still a hell of a lot of prejudice and minorities needed the help. The CRA was expanded under Clinton when banks were accused of "Redlining" areas and making mortgages more expensive and difficult to obtain. The banks were under pressure to make loans more affordable by the government...particularly by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Fed.
Clinton also approved the loosing of standards that allowed a broader definition of bank holding companies...allowing banks to merge with brokerages, insurance companies and other financial companies.
The very laws forbidding these arrangements came from the hard, serious lessons of the Great Depression...and they undid them.
It is not time to be writing to your "leaders". They aren't listening and the only response you'll get, if you get one, is a form letter that may vaguely reference your issue. Most likely you'll get one, if you do get a response, that is totally unrelated to your communication. Our so-called leaders are indifferent, unresponsive and thouroughly corrupted by the power they hold.
Writing and emails no longer work.
The only option left now is to declare war on our own government. To exercise our right to 'alter or abolish it' and reinstitute our Constitution as it was written, not as it is currently interpreted
#14 - Fri Jan 2, 2009 3:55 AM ESTYou're right. You are creative, intelligent and insightful. Do you have any ideas that could stem the tide without violence and distruction? If not, I do and it is a simple solution but, I cannot see to get enough people with clout to listen. Any ideas with that problem?
Old fart-I can identify with this monicer personally, i'm afraid
However,
Your assesment of the precipitants of the current situation is dead on to my research and conclusions. Perhaps I am incorrect but am still hopeful that anarchy will be averted by a wave of hyperinflation, but granted this would require the new regieme to utilize the one time opportunity this will represent to reduce federal deficites instead of using the dollars to increase spending. This is highly doubtful however, as I fear that the new President at heart really wants to redistrabute the wealth under an entirely new socialist political system. This will of course precipitate unavoidable anarchy---
Paranoid BS has been written here. The free market Republicans are the people who screwed up the "free market" and played loose with creative derivatives. Henety and Limbaugh have been lying to you about a lot of things. So chill out. come out of your demonizing fantasies.
Seeing Republicans in the administration freeked out by the collapse of the economy gave me hope. They learned, experienced and saw that the capatalists they trusted are crooked, greedy and untrustworthy. They were too smart for their own good. And, boy, did they lay an egg! Yes, we will be living with the consequences for a long time.
This one is due to lack of government discipline and oversight. Republicans and Democrats now know that government needs to play a role in getting the economy back. Yes, there are no easy answers. No, we can't fix it in a couple of months. The fact is our USA geniuses of commerce and banking have triggered a world wide recession by creating complicated and toxic derivitives. It will take a long time to recover. Government will be leading the creation of a response for setting the stage on which will come a regaining of confidence in the market. Market confidence is near zero.
I don't think common working people are the cause of the problems of industry decline. The lack of innovation by industry leaders is the real failing when it comes to cars, transportation. etc. If the UAW hired back for minimum wage, the car companies will still be selling product for the last century, not for the future. They just don't get the fact that hog cars and trucks are last century. They have a lot of changing to do. Maybe this jolt has awakened some of them to reality. That's my hope. And there is a lot of hope for the future in alternative energy development and innovation. That's the part of the economy that will be growing while other parts of the economy will lag. So there is some good coming even though we've been led as a country by people who still seem to believe in a flat earth and don't get the environmental crisis our humanity faces. I am still hoping we are not too stupid to survive on this planet. The jury is still out on that one, I believe.
Yes, you are an old fart. What about public optimism? Yes, we've been overspending, overbuying, overbuilding, etc. We are a product of what we wanted for our own children, and somewhere selfishness and greed took over. Now is the time to get real. We don't need a mall for every other city block, nor do we all need that new home and 3 cars. I think a good dose of reality will teach us a lot. I have every faith that Obama will come up with a great plan; mainly (besides tax relief and incentives) by creating jobs to fix our infrastructure. This is a MUST and cannot be ignored. He and his Cabinet and new Congress will also put forth plans to promote a new energy. Our last president did not listen, but let's not get into how incompetent he was. That would fill a book. I've already reinvested thousands (after losing about 40% of my future retirement funds) in large equipment building stocks and communication stocks and they've gone up almost 6% already. Let's have some faith. Let's go forward. Let's 'Pay It Forward' and help our friends and neighbors in trouble. We can do it. Bless us all!!
Get your facts straight. The government deficit soared under Reagan, then again under (deficits don't matter) Bush/Cheney. But the government is only a part of the problem. Businesses and consumers have found it just as attractive to deficit spend as the gov't.
Just wait until world oil production peaks, if it hasn't already. The only thing that might delay that is the Nigerian and Iraqi oil that has been offline coming fully online. When Saudi production peaks and then starts to decline within the next few years, the free ride we have all gotten from cheap oil will be over.
Then nothing but increasing prices, followed by economic and agricultural collapse, probably around when oil hits $400/bbl. When farmers cannot afford fuel for tractors, fertilizer (derived from natural gas), pesticide (derived from oil), and truckers cannot afford diesel, the grocery stores will go empty. WHEN this happens (not if), people will starve to death; probably 5 billion world wide and probably a hundred million in the US, if not more. The beginnings of this process will start in 5 to 10 years at the most; it will probably only take a couple years after that for starvation to set in.
Why are you the only person brave enough to write this comment? The sludge in Congress must go.
Even if recession ends in 2009, people will not rush to buy houses,autos, take expensive vacations etc right away. They will lick the wounds and stay low to recover some losses.
The market peaks and lows are all the works of institutions. They need to do something with their huge porfolios. As for me good buy Wall Street............see you in 2012.
#15 - Sun Jan 4, 2009 5:27 PM ESTthis is a self fullfilling ideal, the more people get frightened about looming DOOM it will come, where is the "can do" America, the great society?? Where are the inventors, the doers, all I read is the nay sayers, and negative nellies out for a buck and now are selling sour grapes!! Get up dust yourself off and keep trying, this is what makes this country great, it starts in the neighborhoods not DC, buy local, trade local, employ your neighbor, work together for your future, this is what will change this country, this is the stories my grandparents told, a lot of hard work, saving and perseverence!!! "just keep swimming" like the Dori character says, when it gets dark, keep swimming, (yeah I AM Pollyanna, what's it to yeah)
#16 - Sun Jan 4, 2009 5:30 PM ESTNo I don't think so, I will keep trying, keep believing otherwise why even get out of bed tomorrow???
I see examples in my everyday life that people are trying, people DO care, you can't quit trying it is your right, isn't that GREAT! We can BE DIFFERENT!
", a lot of hard work, saving and perseverence"
Sure, if you still have a job, if you aren't just trying to pay for meds and buy food for your family, and sure, if you have any hope left.
I am working at a job, making barely over minimum wage, it only insurse me not my husband or 2 small children, but what are one choices, quit? go on some assistance trap?
I will take my chances trying, working, pushing forward for a better day,
"the sun WILL come out tomorrow"
"IT WILL"
we all should give it 110% and it would be a different world, instead of complaining or riding the backs of other taxpayes!!
Deepak Chopra has a spiritual answer to our problems. He says we would benefit by embracing uncertainty. Not a completely novel concept it does nonetheless address much of the negativity of these many thoughtful and heartfelt posts. If we think the worst, then we will realize our dreams. There are opinion people, unencumbered by reason, discipline and accountabilty and then there are the "doers" and problem solvers. I hope we can count on the Obama administration to help set a direction for all of us. You gotta have a plan.
Optimism only gets you so far. My sister went to a grocery store (still under construction) to apply for a $10/ hour job. She had to stand in line for the whole day with two thousand other people. She has not gotten a response from any place she has applied. The mortgage will soon become a burden that she cannot pay. I will tell her that everything is all right and at least she still can see the sun tomorrow.
Regarding the "where are the inventors" question. Many of the inventors are unemployed since the US businesses don't do much R & D any more. Just look at what happened to Bell Labs. The place where the transistor and cell phone technology was invented. A great institution ruined by corporate (A T & T / Lucent) greed.
People in college are no longer going into disciplines like Computer Science and Computer Engineering since there is no demand.
I'm with you Ginny C! The only way out of this is to improve our confidence in the future. In fact that's really the entire story.
My advice is to quit participating in the stories of gloom and doom. The news media needs to start reporting the good stuff and stop scaring everybody. Things will get better.
Thanks ginny c. You are right. If all these nay sayers would get off their duffs and get to work, we wouldn't have anything to worry about. I retired 3 years ago, lost most of my retirement money in this latest downturn, and am working again. Com'on America, quit complaining and get back to work.!!!!!
#17 - Sun Jan 4, 2009 5:48 PM ESTThat's the American spirit that brought up this country. I was laid off just after 9/11 and came close to losing my house. I worked any job I could get. Since then, I've worked two jobs to make up the loss of being out of a career job to ensure that I had a back up plan. I help out a friend to help pay her mortgage after she was laid off. I doubled my yearly contribution to the charity that would help out the community most and do as much as I can for others who are hurting during this recession. Those who are working do need to help out as much as they can. That's what made America great and that's what will help to keep her great. If we don't, we all lose. It can be done and it will be done. If you need help, find someone who will help. If you don't need help, find someone to help. We're in this together.
hear!hear! don't you realize it's easier to blame somebody else for your problem, instead of getting off your ace and doing something about it
With the real unemployment rate in this country at 14% to 15% and many others not willing to spend for fear of losing their job, 2009 could be a very ugly year. The markets are already pricing in Obama's stimulus plan as if it will be a hugh success. If it isn't then the markets will tank.
#18 - Sun Jan 4, 2009 6:07 PM ESTI took a minimum wage job myself after looking for more than a year, I am a lucky one, I live in a small town where you are lucky to have 2 helpwanted a month, the choice is an hour commute to find anything, but I will flip burgers or push carts to get by for my family, I know better times will come, I have to for my children, 5 years ago I made almost 40k a year, but what matters is faith in family, friends and beleive it or not each other
I hope it drops and collapses. Enough is enough with this monster money laundering machine.
#19 - Sun Jan 4, 2009 6:14 PM ESTIt took 21 years for the markets to come back after 1929 I see at least ten miserable years ahead. This may be a gloom and doom prophecy but I lost more than a quarter million dollars this year and will never go back into the markets again. 4% cd's make more sense to me I may be losing due to inflation but it is a minimal loss that I can withstand easily.
#20 - Sun Jan 4, 2009 6:21 PM ESTOh, poor thing . . . must be rough to loose $250,000. You play, you pay.
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I wonder which components of the Dow 30 will even survive the year. 65% of the economy is dependent on the consumer, problem is there gone.